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J.R. Reher

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Good day to you, my fellow enthusiasts of geopolitics. What I intend to bring to you today is my own, unprofessional (but hopefully respectful of the rules of reporting information in an unbiased manner that I learned in my own field of study) analysis of the predicament that Poland finds herself in, the dangers ahead and the hopes for the future. Or to put it in more dramatic terms, I'd like to outline for you what geopolitically-minded Poles believe needs to go right for Poland to survive as an independent state and what they fear could go wrong. I need to warn you in advance that this is not an academic paper, there won't be citations of scholarly literature after each claim. My "sources" are a mixture of lectures from both Polish and foreign observers of the subject, various think tank events and reports, articles from more specialized media, as well as my own understanding of situation in a broader historical context, my own attempts to read between the lines of what the relevant world leaders are saying as well my perception of the mood in the country sampled from "the word on the street". If that seems insufficient to you, please keep in mind that my aim is not to bring you any shocking revelations and trend-setting conclusions. I merely wish to present to you the various ways in which more or less geopolitically-conscious Poles think and talk about the present and future of their country. So without further ado, let's begin: The Stage Poland is in its current shape and geographic location strategically indefensible and its geopolitical position independently untenable. With no significant natural barriers in either direction, in her 1000 years of history, independent Poland has never existed for long with greater powers to both West and East. That said, it's important to state that as tragic as the country's flat and indefensible geography is, the part of the Northern European Plain it's situated on is also the narrowest in the North-South direction and along with Ukraine constitutes a gateway between East and West. When Poland controlled most of those lands, her curse was also her blessing and contributed in a major way to Commonwealth's status as a great power. Poland lacking control of the entireity of this gate reaps none of the benefits of having a say who comes through and faces all of the threat of being in the way. Poland's current sovereignty can be attributed almost entirely to a "freeze" in great power politics brought on by the establishment of the so called "Rules-Based Global Order" introduced by the United States following World War 2 in order to bring the Western states together to help America stand against the Soviets. After the collapse of the USSR, a decision was made to maintain said order and invite Poland, along with other countries liberated from the Communists who were ready to take that offer, to the club, resulting in Poland joining NATO in 1997 and the EU in 2004. This, along with drastic and arguably haphazard, but comprehensive liberalization reforms carried out in the early 90s, resulted in steady growth of prosperity, culminating in Poland officially joining the ranks of developed countries in 2018. The Predicament Given Poland's unfortunate geography and relatively small population and economy, it can never realistically hope to stand against hostile foreign incursions of both hard and soft power without outside help. That makes it so that what Poland needs above all is a powerful and reliable ally with a vested interest in Poland existing as an independent state. This notion is as obvious today as it was in the inter-war period, but just as back then the allies proved not rich enough in the above qualities to keep Poland from Stalin, the fear is that should the Global Rules-Based Order unravel further, the same will prove to be true once again. Of course, great many people in Poland are free from that fear, trusting in lasting endurance of NATO as deterrence to outside threats and the EU continuing to be a stable environment for Poland to thrive in and increase her prosperity and it's entirely possible that they may prove to be correct, but we're not here to look at the world from a perspective in which geopolitical realities are assumed to be put on hold indefinitely. The Dangers The more things change the more they stay the same, the mortal threats to Polish sovereignty remain Russia and Germany. I'll start with Germany as that's the part that already raised more eyebrows and objections and I need to quickly clarify that educated, reasonable Poles on the most part don't consider Germany to be hostile to Poland or believe that it will turn hostile in the future. The threat I am talking about pertains to the sovereignty of Poland, not to Polish lives and basic individual freedoms and the loss of said sovereignty is to happen through further gradual osmosis of German soft power into its weaker neighbour, accelerated by further institutional integration within the EU (especially if conditions of this integration would be unfavourable to Poland), not armed conflict of any kind. A large segment of Polish society, what could be roughly described as "liberals", considers that outcome to be acceptable if not desirable. Some believe that by the time it happens, we will all be a one big European family and it won't matter who's stronger than who, some concede that it's the only option and it will happen no matter what, so there's no point fighting it and some even believe that being de facto governed by German politicians is prefereable to living under a Polish government. The "conservatives" largely see the threat of German domination as one of the main arguments against further European integration, but it's important to note that Poland still remains the most pro-EU country in Europe. I'll come back to that topic later. Now let's discuss Russia. Poles view Russia most unfavourably out of any nation in the world and there is virtually no diplomatic dialogue between the two countries. When you say "foreign threat" in Poland, you're saying "Russia", when Polish army trains, it trains against Russia, when Polish MOD buys equipment, people will judge the purchase based on how they think it will fare against what the Russians have. Polish politicians have to bite their tongue not to call Russia "enemy" when speaking publicly and the guy who tried to start a pro-Russian political party ended up locked in jail, because he was found out to be an agent. The reason for that is that everyone barring a handful of fringe political groups, especially from the extreme right, recognizes that Polish and Russian interest in the region are fundamentally irreconcilable, the same as they ever were. Other than the need for good allies, what is also universally recognized in Poland is that the country would greatly benefit economically and strategically from being neighboured by friendly, like-minded countries to the East. Continued independence of the Baltics as well as integration of Ukraine and hopefully Belarus into the political and economic sphere where Poland resides are vital geopolitical interests of Poland. Securing these latter two goals would push the Russian threat further away (I don't want to use the term "buffer zone", since that term has very negative connotations when applied to this part of the world due to what Russians understand by it), make Poland less periferial in this community of nations and preferably allow it to extert the same kind of influence that Germany exterts on Poland. Russia has obviously other plans for the region and I have to leave it at that, because explaining the point of view of Russia is a monumental task that goes far beyond the scope of this post. Now an important question is what geopolitically-literate persons in Poland exactly fear from Russia. Few consider an outright invasion of Poland to be a real possibility in circumstances remotely resembling the ones we have today, although it's important to note that according to most analysts and recently conducted war games, from a purely-strategic point of view and based on concentration of troops in the region, Russia is perfectly capable of swiftly beating Polish forces and forcing them to retreat beyond Vistula assuming access through Belarus. A more realistic scenario is a Russian incursion into one of the aforementioned countries of interest forcing Poland to either react and risk potentially even nuclear retaliation or concede to being encroached on by a threat that could one day turn existential. A specific and the most relevant example of such a scenario is a Russian incursion into one of the Baltic states. Assuming Belarussian neutrality (which is the better option for Poland), the aid provided to the Baltics would need to come through the Suwałki gap (the strip of land where Poland borders Lithuania) which is not possible due to the concentration of the area-denial missile systems in the exclave of Kaliningrad. To open the passage, those area-denial system must first be destroyed. So in order to protect her vital geostrategic interests, Poland would need to get a go-ahead from her more powerful Western allies (i. e. United States) to attack Russian territory, destroy crucial Russian assets and risk starting a nuclear war. Or go at it alone and get smacked down by Russia eventually. Nobody assumes that Poland has the green light to provoke a nuclear war, so that's a serious headache. And it gets worse. The Future or riding two horses into the storm As bad as being expected by your stronger allies to be the first to confront a greater threat without knowing how much political will to support you if you do there is, it gets worse without them. With increasing talks of a) EU wishing to become independent from US militarily b) American leadership reconsidering its commitments to Europe and shifting its attention towards Asia and (I don't want to make this political in the internal sense, but it would be dishonest not to mention it) c) Polish government's universally condemned transgressions against the system of democratic checks and balances weakening Poland's claim of entitlement to protection by the Rules-Based Order by default, Poland might soon face a situation where failing to secure firm commitment from one of her allies will leave her with none. Which one of those allies should Poland stake her chips on is the essence of the geopolitical debate in Poland and that's regardless of whether the participants realize that what they're talking about is geopolitics or not. If you exclude the fringe, and in my personal view, ignorant propositions that Poland should either stand alone against the world or cozy up to Russia (A sidenote: there is an intriguing notion that Russia might be willing to extend a very sweet deal to Poland to secure our non-interference in the next Russian adventure, but if such a thing was to happen, it would be because Poland is a problem for Russia, not because they like us, so that's not an argument for being pro-Russian before that happens), what we're left with are two directions, doctrines or options: The Atlantic Option Proponents of the Atlantic Option will tell you that Poland is a prime candidate to serve as a continental anchor for the atlantic sea powers of United Kingdom and United States and it's reasonable to expect those countries to be interested in keeping us an ally. The idea is that Americans and the British have a use for Poland as a form of a wedge between Germany and Russia keeping those countries from consolidating into something that could threaten them. Its opponents will tell you that Poland is on the wrong side of the Jutland peninsula to be the continental anchor and that turning our back on EU and clinging onto Americans for dear life like we currently do without even knowing if they will care about what happens in Europe is misguided. Whether the latter will prove to be true or not, the apparent pros of this option are enticing. For one, US being the (increasingly doubted, but still reigning) military hegemon and being too far to extert the kind of dominating influence a neighbour could, is the perfect ally for Poland assuming their commitment. And Americans, whether they mean it or not, assure us of their commitment at every occasion, so for as many things as you can fault our government, not being eager to mistrust them is not one of them. Secondly, to serve as this wedge, Poland would need to be in a decent shape not only militarily, but also economically and being economically propped-up by the largest economy on the planet (in nominal GDP, I know) is again a mouth-watering perspective. Finally a firm alliance with America would likely imply encouragement and support for Poland to extend its influence to the the countries of interests I mentioned earlier in order to incorporate them into the wedge, whereas European states could just easily have them for themselves. As for the cons, other than the lack of certainty of reciprocity, they are as follows: being America's great landing strip would put us in greater danger than a humble existence within EU would many people strongly favour European values and the institutions that foster them over American flavour of freedom with its for-profit prisons and things of this sort turning our back completely on EU if we were ever forced to could be economically suicidal to the point where even the mighty US couldn't subsidize us out of poverty given how deeply Polish economy is integrated with the EU, especially Germany For now, despite the threat of United States turning its attention entirely to Asia (or even, God forbid, sacrificing us to Russia for their aid there), electing an islolationist president or an idealist president who deems alliance with Poland not worth tolerating our leaders' encroachment on democratic values, or even the possibility that when things get too tense, the Americans will reveal that they never cared that much to begin with, we put our faith in the Atlantic Option. That's a long list of cons and despites, which is understandable why many people prefer The Continental Option The Continental Option stakes Poland's security on firm integration with the EU. Its proponents believe that just as good EU was for us economically as an economic union, it will be good for us militarily as a military union. They reasonably posit that Poland, being a country with a major interest in security matters, should jump at Macron's invitation to form a EU army and place their allegiance there instead of USA in matters like military equipment procurement and the choice of foreign expeditions, eventually even aiding in going against the interests of the United States should that ever happen to be good for Europe. They believe that a deeply united Europe would be a formidable force that nobody would dare confront and that a membership in this organization is more than enough to keep Poland safe. The problems with this approach vary from obvious, like the fact that no European country has currently any real capability to project significant force into Poland or the fact that major European powers don't share the same attitude to Russia as we do (see: Nord Stream 2), to very controversial like potentially questionable long term viability and stability of the union itself. The last problem, which I hinted at before, is the notion that even if things go splendidly in terms of ensuring Poland's security, integrating our armed forced into a structure that's in large part controlled by states which may not have our best interests in mind in matters less drastic than foreign incursions will result in finalizing the de facto loss of sovereignty that a deep integration into the EU entails. As many potential flaws as there are with this deal, it seems to be the one that is more likely to remain on the table should our worries about the direction the world is going were to materialize. Conclusion As you can see, given that both options are, however much needed, far from perfect and in a nightmare scenario it's possible that neither will be avaliable or sufficiently realized when needed, if Poland is ever forced to choose (and we're not here to proclaim The End of History and state that it never will), it's reasonable to expect that things will never be as good as they are now that we have the luxury of enjoying all the military and economic boons that a one, amicable community of nations has to offer us. It's important to note that both sides of the debate have arguments with merit and it's near-impossible to objectively attribute the correct amount of weight to them without countless preconceptions and biases getting in the way. It's a difficult and important debate and its outcome could determine not only the fate of countries that along with Poland would need to radically reconsider how they see their security situation, but even significantly influence the nature of the future relationship between United States and European Union. I'm getting worried that this post is getting too long to submit, so I'll end it here and invite you to voice your comments, questions and objections below. Thank you for your attention.

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